What are the probabilities of a person catching HIV/AIDS, statistically?!
Question:
What are the probabilities of a person catching HIV/AIDS, statistically?
I mean like, 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 25,000? The web has too many generic figures! Post your info please.
Answers:
According to estimates from the UNAIDS/WHO AIDS Epidemic Update (November 2006), around 37.2 million adults and 2.3 million children were living with HIV at the end of 2006. http://www.avert.org/worlstatinfo.htm...
That's 39.5 million people total who are HIV+. There are about 6.1 billion people on the planet.
(39.5*10^6) / (6.1*10^9) = 6.475*10^-3 that's a worldwide prevalence of 6.475 people per thousand or about 0.65 percent of the population.
So what are the chances off a person being HIV+ it's a little more than half a percent.
HOWEVER
That assumes all people are equally at risk of contracting HIV. While all people are at risk of contracting HIV, some people are MORE at risk than others. For example, a monogamous lesbian who does not use any injectable drugs and has never had a blood transfusion nor accepted any donor sperm is far LESS likely to get HIV than a male steroid-injecting bodybuilder who receives anal penetration from multiple anonymous male partners who don't use condoms.
Some activities are riskier than others. To quantify risk would involve a whole lot of multivariate analyses. You could try to read a lot of journal publications on the matter, but that's a lot of work.
So is there a raw number that I could give you? Not without a whole lotta work involved.